A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
